LCC and Federal Financial Aid

UPDATE 5/26/2014: More information here.

UPDATE 4/28/2014: Big thanks to Molloy and Helen for helping me get my facts straight.  If today's edits need more fixing it is because of my confusions, not their nice explanations.

Lane Community College might be in trouble.

Like most community colleges, it is able to offer more than a "life skills and trade school" education.

It can offer more because of Federal financial aid.  More than 70% of LCC students get what can seem like free money by signing up for classes.

Enrollment expands.  The college can in many ways develop a university-like atmosphere and community.

Consider the letter our president sent out at the start of this term to faculty and staff.

Colleagues,

The fifth day of spring term and already great things have been happening at Lane with lots more to come. For example, on Wednesday we hosted Jonathan Swanz whose installation Vibrant Matter – Sculpture in Glass can be seen in the Art gallery and in Building 10. Following an interesting lecture on his work we had the opportunity to witness an amazing collaboration between Jonathan and Bonnie Simoa and Sara Nemecek. To see our dance faculty and students interact with the art work was truly magical. Tomorrow we will host the annual pow wow, delayed due to the snow in December, but nonetheless a wonderful gathering that is well worth attending. On Sunday, April 6 Hisao Watanabe will conduct the Lane Chamber Orchestra. Sparky Roberts is directing A Midsummer Night’s Dream which will open on April 16. Stan Taylor and his team have put together a strong, dynamic program for the Peace Symposium on April 25 Awakening the Dreamer - Move to Action.  There is so much more but whether it is the Arts or Diversity all of these events add a richness for our students and our community. These activities enhance the work you are doing providing great learning experiences in the classroom and across the college as you interact with students. In the midst of budgeting, bargaining, governance review, accreditation (about which you will hear more in separate communications) it is heartening to pause for a moment and recognize and enjoy the depth and breadth of what Lane Community College is all about.

Best wishes for spring term.

Mary

Visiting artists, a longhouse and pow wows, and a Peace Center's symposium are nice things.  But students would hesitate to pay for them with what feels like their own money.

(Colleges really do get "free money" that does not pain any spender by the amount of grants and through how inflation reduces the financial cost of the students' Federal loan debt.)

However, this spending is unsustainable.  Too many students were taking classes just for the useful Federal financial aid money without ever finishing a degree or program, or successfully transition to a four-year college.

UPDATE 4/28/2014: Today I studied a Board Meeting and updated budget proposals.  Learning what cuts are under consideration is fascinating, a bit sad, and a very different subject.

Also, too many students were defaulting on their Federal loans.

The Federal government stops offering Pell Grants and Direct Loans through schools whose three-year cohort default rate reaches 30% for three consecutive years (see page 57).

An overview of this process is that a rate is determined for each year.  A draft is published in February and finalized in September.  Colleges have a time window in which they may contest the data for both draft and finalized rates (see page 58).

For fiscal year 2010 the LCC rate was finalized at 30.6%.

For 2011 only a draft rate has been published, at 30.0%.  LCC is appropriately reviewing and contesting that data.  If the college can reduce this rate below 30% before or soon after it becomes a final rate in September then the college will be secure offering financial aid for at least two more years.

The 2012 data is collected through September, published as a draft rate next February, and finalized next September.

For rates past 2012 the college is not very worried.  A new policy this school year requires all students to meet with an academic advisor to make sure they are either casual students (taking a class for fun, without financial aid) or devoted students actually on track to finish a degree or program or successfully transition to a four-year college.  Enrollment has dropped ten percent as this change has weeded out the people who were enrolling in classes primarily for the financial aid money.  The college expects the new policy to henceforth keep their default rate below 30%, because the students who do earn some sort of diploma are more likely to pay back their loans.

However, there is a chance that in September 2015 (a) the 2010 rate will remain at 30.6% and (b) the 2011 rate will be finalized above 30% and (c) the upcoming 2012 rate will also be finalized above 30%.

If all three of those conditions do happen, then LCC would lose the ability to offer Federal Pell Grants and Direct Loans.  That consequence would last until the end of the 2017 fiscal year.  By the end of that time, the college would look a lot more like a "life skills and trade school" educational institution.

To repeat, LCC has at least another sixteen months of safety, and two decent chances to avoid any problems.

Some other colleges are not so secure.  Here is a list of institutions in danger of losing their ability to give Federal financial aid in September of his year.

UPDATE 4/28/2014:  I have learned that without Federal financial aid the college would quickly close its doors.  That confuses me.  But I confess that I lack understanding of both the cost of maintaining LCC's physical infrastructure and the opportunity cost of leaving a building inactive for three years.  It saddens me to learn that a community college education is perhaps only economically feasible when subsidized.

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What happens to me if LCC does lose the ability to offer those Federal financial aid?

If the college does not shut its doors, I would not expect the math division to change much.  Math classes do not need expensive equipment or materials (unlike nursing or automotive mechanics).  A math class with twelve or more students is profitable.  All of my "math foundations" classes start at thirty.  (By the end of each term four to six students have vanished.)

In other words, the Math division is a "cash cow" for the college.  Cutting math classes or staff would be silly.

Detail: The fact that my classes have more than double the number of students to be profitable might be important.

To some extent the current LCC tuition cost of $93/credit is a subsidy-inflated value.  It can be that high because most students use Federal financial aid.  If the tuition rate stopped being buoyed up by subsidy then LCC would have to respond.  The college would be forced to lower the tuition rate to what students could afford without assistance, and cut the programs and activities that were no longer financially feasible.

As one hypothetical example, if LCC did lose the ability to offer Financial aid and responded by cutting the tuition rate by half.  Now a math class would need twice as many students (twenty-four) to be profitable.  My low-level math classes would still earn the college money.  They would even cover the loss of math classes such as third-quarter calculus that seldom have twenty-four students.

But LCC has entire departments in which classes as big as twenty-four students are rare.  If tuition was hypothetically halved, those departments would be in big trouble. Not to mention the longhouse, Peace Center, health center, and many other student services.

Moreover, student demand for low-level math will remain.  My math classes help people get better jobs.  They also save money for students starting at community college before transferring to U. of O. and USO.

And if I did lose my job at LCC?  Then I would start my own business doing about the same teaching.  LCC, U. of O., and OSU all have math placement tests.  Students who took private classes would not earn credits, but would be able to place into higher math classes.  It would be a bother to run a small business (which is why I teach at LCC), but not a big change and probably more lucrative.

UPDATE 5/30/2014:  Today I heard that a typical LCC math class needs 18 (not 12) students to be profitable. This number changes slightly because not all instructors are paid the same (especially full-time versus part-time).

Counting the Omer, Day 4

Busy day.  No time to write much.

I will simply say that God can teach me two things at a time.

One thing I can seek after and struggle with in prayer.

And second, a bit more in understanding humility.

More than two things makes me flounder.  I miss part of what God wants me learn.  I need to repeat the lesson.

Happily, God knows my limitations and is patient to give me lessons at a pace I can internalize.

Lately life has been so busy and full that I have not been dutiful to keep asking for both types of lessons.  With Spring gardening, sick kids, and a big to-do list it is easy to slip into learning hodge-podge from circumstances.  That works a little, but is as inefficient as trying to learn geometry by doing home improvement projects.

So one goal during the days of counting the omer is to get back to whole-heartedly pursuing both types of lessons.

More details tomorrow.

Counting the Omer, Day 3

Yesterday I started to write about changing habits.  Time to continue...

Earlier today I wrote about types of motivation.

By nature I am (in that essay's vocabulary) proactive and eudaimonic.  There are ways I can arrange my schedule and to-do lists that make me confident I can do well.  I am most relaxed and happy when I have a desirable schedule and routines.

But for the past six years I have been a househusband.

So much for being able to arrange my schedule routines!  I do not even get to expect to sleep through the night or eat a meal uninterrupted.

For example, consider tonight's dinner.  The boys and I had salmon quesadillas, and I also had some scrambled eggs.  We ate in the back yard.  I ate dinner in little bits, interrupted by keeping the boys on track, getting them drinks and later apple, grilling more quesadillas, changing a dirty diaper, and washing dishes promptly to keep the fish smell out of the house.

That's okay.  I can be patient until I some day get a calm, relaxing, prayerful meal.  But eating while metaphorically juggling does make me relish having a bite of sweet dessert, and that brief relaxing pleasure fades so quickly.  I'm really not good at being hedonic.  But when I am unable to be eudaimonic, my body naturally tries the alternative despite knowing it is less effective for me.

Anyway, one of my resolutions during the days of counting the omer is to try to better feed by eudaimonic nature.  This should make me happier, and less interrupted by my mostly-ineffective hedonic habits.

The boys are old enough that I can put up some boundaries and they understand.  They do not always get to ask me with questions.  I get some typing time (like right now!) when they need to entertain themselves instead of asking me to entertain them.  I get some prayer time where being physically still does not mean I am idle and interruptible.  I can practice tai chi again and they know to let me finish the short routine.  I get some evening time at the dojo each week without them.

I expect this will reduce how much I snack on chocolate and feel the need to let my brain tune out by reading unimportant online news and blogs.

Motivation

I have noticed my math students fit into four different categories.

I should carefully define how I use the diagram's four words.

Proactive people approach tasks like a swing dance lead: they supply the energy and momentum, and organize what will happen.  They make very specific plans.  They focus on schedules and effort.

Reactive people approach tasks like a swing dance follow: they react to external energy and momentum and fill it with their personal style.  They make vague plans.  They focus on emotion and bargains.

Eudaimonic people think most about overall wellbeing.  They often make choices that arrange their life to have stable happiness.

Hedonic people think about specific comfort and discomfort.  They often make choices to enjoy immediate pleasures or avoid immediate anxiety.

Let's consider what students of each type might say to themselves to help motivate themselves to do math homework.

(Obviously, most real-life students will be motivated by a blend of these types.  Yet some types will be more strongly influential than others.  Students reading this essay will think, "Yeah, I am mostly that one with some of this and that.")

The proactive, eudaimonic student 

I will set aside specific times and places to study each week.  I will make myself do the homework.  I know that if I arrange my week in a way that makes homework a priority then I will not fall behind in class.  Falling behind causes trouble.  I believe I can pass any class if I never fall behind.

I will keep aware of my potential resources: office hours, tutoring, the library's collection of the textbook publisher's videos for each section, online math videos, my roommate's friend who is great at math, etc.  If I ever start falling behind I will pick one more resource to start using.

I will compare my notes with those of some classmates.  That will help me learn what kind of math notes help me most.  If someone else seems to be a much better note taker than I am, I will ask if they can teach me their way.

The proactive, hedonic student 

I will set aside specific times and places to study each week.  After each study time I will schedule getting together with friends.

I will make myself do the homework.  It will be easier to get the homework done while I am looking forward to having fun afterwards.

I recognize that discouragement is normal and temporary.  I will push through any discouragement.  If I need to bribe myself by eating a chocolate chip after each homework problem, so be it.

I am afraid to ask questions during class.  I'll ask one each week.  If I don't then I will go up to my teacher after class on Friday and apologize for not asking my questions.  That would be horrible, so I know I'll ask one question.  Probably on Mondays to get it done with.

I believe I can succeed.   I can reach my goals.

The reactive, eudaimonic student

This homework intimidates me but I will show it who is boss!  When I finish a homework assignment I will celebrate using social media so my friends can say 'good job!' and I will feel happy.

I will join a study group so the expectation of attending it will keep me from procrastinating.  Also, in the study group I will sometimes be the person who give hints and help to others and that will make me feel good.

After a test I will get some tutoring from my friend who is great at math.  If I do well her congratulations will make feel good.  Knowing she will be looking at my tests' scratch work will motivate me to write my step-by-step answers nicely, which will itself help my test scores.

I will take great notes.  If there is someone in my class who needs a copy of someone's notes (I know disability services sometimes recommends this to people) I will volunteer.  That will make me feel useful and happy.  And I'll have good notes!

I realize I am afraid to ask questions during math class.  I made a bargain with my roommate: whichever of us asks the more questions in our math classes each week buys the other a fancy coffee during the weekend.

The reactive, hedonic student

This homework intimidates me but I will show it who is boss!  Each day I will not eat deserts until my homework is done.

I know that listening to music slows me down, but after I complete three-quarters of the problems I will turn on my music anyway so I finish in a better mood.

I will mark the tests on my calendar with the big red words "math test!".  A little fear helps prevent procrastination.  I am going to worry about the tests anyway.  I might as well use that worry to help get my homework done on time.

I know I have some strengths.  I am organized.  I can focus when studying.  I passed the previous math class.  I like going to class.  I want to do well.  When I feel discouraged I will think about these strengths.

I realize I am afraid to ask questions during math class.  When I do ask questions I will applaud my bravery.  I might even do a little dance after class.

---

All four types of students can motivate themselves, complete the homework, and succeed in math.  But how they do it is very different!

LCC has a nice flyer about study tips.  The LCC Testing Office has online study tips.  My own math website has study tips.

The majority of these study tips seem to assume students can be proactive and eudaimonic.  But sociologists are learning more about how these motivation types are a deep part of us, and geneticists are learning more about how they are more inherent than learnable.

Perhaps I should go through all of these study tips to see how well they sort by motivation type?

Or perhaps I should offer that as a small extra-credit assignment to my math students the first week of each term?

Does anyone have other tips or advice for helping students of different motivations?

UPDATE - I started an e-mail discussion of this with LCC faculty, and someone said my reactive category was a lot like the Feeling Learners from Skip Downing's book On Course used by the SAGA program at LCC.  There is a lot of overlap.

UPDATE - April 23rd, 2014 - During a discussion about this blog post today, a friend said, "In classes I enjoy I am proactive and eudaimonic.  I set aside time to do the work and get enough reward from the happy feeling that the work is done well.  But in classes I do not enjoy I am definitely reactive and hedonic."  The plot thickens.

Counting the Omer, Day 2

Sundown again.  Day two of counting the omer.

As Pesach approached, I considered what habits to change during the days of the counting of the omer.

One decision was to restrict my "entertain myself" computer time to online sermons and reviewing my old sermons to pick some to prioritize for rewriting as scriptural concept essays.

That turned out to be a fairly easy goal.  As I wrote about earlier today, during the past month the corner of the manosphere that I read most has collapsed.  So I found someone interesting to follow on the Pathfinder forums.  When I felt a need to read something unimportant and mentally undemanding, I used the forum discussions in which he participated.  Now I only need drop that routine.  Since it is a new routine I do not care about, it is easy to drop.

I also thought quite a bit about interesting things to blog about, but postponed doing that blogging.  Now I can have a nice "brain dump" feeling by writing blog posts, instead of unproductively reading what other people write.

Naturally, I am changing some other habits also.  But I will be strategic and save that discussion for a future blog post.

Two Types of the Top Hundredth of a Percent

America has two top one-hundredths of a percent.

The Top 0.01% Annual Earners

An interesting analysis of the 1% was recently reported in the Atlantic.

The top one percent of American earners are barely growing in their share of wealth.  Even the top tenth of a percent are only increasing their share slowly and erratically.

But the top hundredth of a percent have increased their share by a huge amount.

These groups are demographically worlds apart.

The top one percent are mostly small business owners.  The "lower half" of the top one percent of earners have annual incomes between $350,000 and $500,000 per year, and usually about half that after taxes and retirement contributions.

The top hundredth of a percent are those brokers and bankers (and to a lesser extent CEOs) who got very lucky in the stock market last year.  Their annual income was over $5 million!  Few of the top hundredth of a percent stay at that level for long, because the stock market is a harsh mistress.

I recommend Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book The Black Swan for an easy to read glimpse at the crazy and horrific world in which the  top hundredth of a percent temporarily can live.

The small business earners are increasingly encumbered by Federal legislation, and are not feeling like they enjoy much political influence.

The very top earners can be politically influential for a few years.  But most are too busy buying and enjoying cars and yachts and homes to enjoy before their luck in the stock market changes and they go bankrupt.

The Top 0.01% Wealth Holders

The top hundredth of a percent of wealth holders in America are very different people than the top hundredth of a percent of wealth earners.

Families can pass along wealth and political influence without ever earning as much during a single year as the brokers and bankers who get luckiest in the stock market.

But only 8% of these top wealth holders were born wealthy or inherited wealth.  Joshua Kennon has written two interesting reports about the country's top wealth holders.  Most are self-made success stories that hide their wealth from family and friends.

Measuring a family's net worth is difficult for many reasons (Joshua writes well about these).  But as a rough estimates these "new elite" own at least $5 million in investments.

(An entire 8% of American households have a net worth of $1 million or more.  But that can be paying off a mortgage without having any substantial liquid investments.)

The urban top wealth holders are politically influential.  In the 2010 election cycle, a few more than 25,000 Americans together contributed $744 million.  That was one-quarter of what all individuals contributed, and more than 80% of party committee money.

These donors lived primarily in New York, Washington, Chicago, and Los Angeles.  They are the top urban wealth holders.  These are the people who influence politics with money.

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Tangentially, much of "politics influenced by money" is from groups, not individuals.

Consider the Affordable Care Act, which at its core is a compromise between the hospitals and health insurers.  Those two groups have opposed interests and "battle" using enormous wealth and political influence.  Their people are nearly all members of the 99% of earners and holders, "normal folks" who would claim to be just looking out for their jobs.

Smiley is Six

Smiley turned six earlier this month.

He recently had a small growth spurt.  Now he weighs 41.6 pounds and is 44 inches tall.

Having finally reached forty pounds, he can use a booster seat in the car.  That makes it easier for us to drive a friend somewhere, and possible for Grandma and Grandpa to take him places in their vehicle.

Watching the Manosphere Crumble

I have mentioned the manosphere in three blog posts.  Reading those blogs has more-or-less served its purpose for me.

As I reported last month when discussing the state of my projects, my essays for my boys about appropriate masculinity are halfway done.  The rate at which manosphere blogs gave me new and worthwhile ideas to think about has slowed to a trickle.  A few insights get repeated, but very seldom with increased depth.

Moreover, during the past month the manosphere has crumbled.

Athol and Dalrock are writing very little.  Those are two who most often introduce new ideas that a married Christian might care about.

The blogs I found most entertaining to read because of good writing and interesting personal journeys have died: LaidNYC, Danny, Sunshine Mary.

Foundational bloggers I did not read much have isolated themselves: Roosh a year ago, and now Danger and Play and Matt Forney.  After publishing his book, Rollo is writing much less and somewhat distancing himself.

Overall, the problem is clear.  Trying to clarify and solve problems without grace and forgiveness produces too much negativity and bitterness.

Men who have knowledge and experience about self-improvement want to share advice.

But when the conversations inevitably turn from "building yourself" to "helping society" these men become distracted by hurts and injustices and have very little to offer.

Protestant Christianity teaches that we need God's help to become who we should be.  Judaism teaches that acts of righteousness heal a broken world.

The collapse of the manosphere has been a fascinating demonstration of how we equally need God's help for a third a less dramatic goal: to maintain our world with small repairs as vice wears it down.

Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance.
  --Kurt Vonnegut, Hocus Pocus

Smiley Watches the Film Hero

Four years ago I wrote about watching the film Hero.

Smiley is now old enough to need this film.  The more I watch it the more I enjoy it.

During our walk home from school, I started a discussion with Smiley.

Me: I got a new movie from the library that you will like.  But first you have to answer a question.

Smiley: Okay.

Me: You do lots of different kinds of fighting.  You learn jiu-jitsu at the dojo.  In the back yard you play with boffer swords.  In the playroom when Kiki visited you ran around pretending to shoot fire at each other.  Why do you like fighting?

Smiley: Because it is fun.

Me: What makes it fun?

Smiley: Because it is nice.

Me: What makes it nice?  Is it the same nice for the jiu-jitsu and the boffer swords and the pretending to shoot fire?

Smiley: I do not know.

Me: You can watch a little of the movie.  When you have more answers you can watch more.

Later he added:

Smiley:  Because it is challenging.

My goal with the conversation is for him to find in his own life the lessons the film teaches about being a warrior.  Then the film will help confirm something personal, rather than introduce new ideas.

The dojo tries to teach the same lessons the film does.  The instructors, Adam and Terry, spend time talking about how act when threatened by a bully.  Thankfully, Smiley has never been bullied and so far all of this is for him abstract theory.

Eventually I hope through discussion to lead Smiley to notice in his life the progression:

1. I gain self-discipline by practicing fighting when alone.
2. I gain confidence by practicing fighting with friends.
3. I gain pride by knowing I could defend myself from a bully if I needed to.
4. I gain peace by not needing to think or worry about bullies.

That evolution should be why boys like fighting.

This roughly fits the English version of what the king learns in the film.

"I have just come to a realization! This scroll by Broken Sword contains no secrets of his swordsmanship. What this reveals is his highest ideal. In the first state, man and sword become one and each other. Here, even a blade of grass can be used as a lethal weapon. In the next stage, the sword resides not in the hand but in the heart. Even without a weapon, the warrior can slay his enemy from a hundred paces. But the ultimate ideal is when the sword disappears altogether. The warrior embraces all around him. The desire to kill no longer exists. Only peace remains."

Tangentially, the Chinese is reported to be quite different.

"There is no wonder you didn’t understand! This character that Broken Sword wrote has nothing to do with his swordsmanship. He wrote it with his heart! I am not as good as Broken Sword, and neither are you! Broken Sword has foreseen the trend and the future. He is telling you, by advising you to think of tian xia (all people), that it is destined for Qin to conquer the other six nations. Life or death of any individuals will never change the course of history. So it is up to you if you want to kill me. But whether or not you do, the fate of tian xia (the world) will not be altered because tian xia (the public) will get what it wants and deserves once the trend of history has been determined."

---

The film also comments on what an ideal hero is like.

The hero should be strong yet flexible mentally.  A hero is loyal to his or her beliefs, true to his or her promises, skilled at negotiating, and eager to learn new understandings.

The hero should also be strong yet flexible physically.  A hero is brave, full of energy, and passionate about art.  The hero can use fighting for self-protection, demonstrations of self-mastery, accomplishing a goal, or expressing deep emotion.  The hero does not fight unless challenged, and is able to fight without hurting his opponents.

Smiley is not yet old enough to understand all of those lessons.  The Hero film will be useful again in later years.

Counting the Omer, Day 1

The sun is setting.  The Shabbat during Pesach is ending.  The coming day is First Fruits and the first day of counting the omer.

ברוך אתה יי אלהינו מלך הולם, אשר קדשנו במיצותיו וצונו על ספירת העומר

היום יום אחד לעומר

Baruch atah, Adonai, Eloheinu Melech HaOlam,
  Blessed are you, my Lord, our God, King of the Universe,
asher kidshanu b'mitzvotav
   who has sanctified us with his commandments
v'tzivanu al sefirat ha'omer.
  and has commanded us concerning the counting of the omer.
Ha'yom yom echad la'omer
  Today is one day of the omer.

The fifty days between First Fruits and Shavuot are similar to the fifty days between Tish B'Av and Rosh Hashanah.  Both are times of prayerful introspection.

The counting of the omer emphasizes becoming pure so we are fit to receive what God wants to give us.  Later, the final fifty days of the year emphasize repentance and interpersonal forgiveness to minimize or perhaps defuse the negative consequences of our past year's mistakes.

It seemed appropriate to try blogging one year's introspection and personal growth.

36 Techniques in 23 Classes

I have written before about studying Gracie jiu-jitsu combatives curriculum at McKenzie Martial Arts.

(Smiley is learning a simplified version appropriate for his age group.)

A sample of these lessons is available online.  My big December holiday present was the complete set of lessons on DVD.

The curriculum explores thirty-six techniques, each of which has a few variations.  At the dojo these are arranged into twenty-three classes so that each class can have both stand-up and on-the-mat portions.

Below is how the techniques fit into the classes, for my own archival use to know which to review at home before class to best learn the material.

(There are not twenty-three distinct stand-up techniques, so many of these are seen twice during the cycle of lessons.)

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Class 1
1. Trap and Roll Escape
6. Leg Hook Takedown

Class 2
2. Americana Armlock
7. Clinch (Aggressive Opponent)

Class 3
3. Positional Control - Mount
14. Body Fold Takedown

Class 4
4. Take the Back
5. Rear Naked Choke
15. Clinch (Conservative Opponent)

Class 5
8. Punch Block Series (Stages 1 through 4)
23. Guillotine Choke

Class 6
9. Straight Armlock (Mount)
32. Guillotine Defense

Class 7
10. Triangle Choke
30. Haymaker Punch Defense

Class 8
11. Elevator Sweep
29. Rear Takedown

Class 9
12. Elbow Escape (Mount)
21. Pull Guard

Class 10
13. Positional Control - Side Mount
17. Double Leg Takedown

Class 11
16. Headlock Counters
26. Standing Headlock Defense

Class 12
18. Headlock Escape 1
34. Standing Armlock

Class 13
19. Straight Armlock (Guard)
7. Clinch (Aggressive Opponent -- again

Class 14
20. Double Ankle Sweep
23. Guillotine Choke -- again

Class 15
22. Headlock Escape 2
15. Clinch (Conservative Opponent) -- again

Class 16
24. Shrimp Escape
14. Body Fold Takedown -- again

Class 17
25. Kimura Armlock
6. Leg Hook Takedown -- again

Class 18
27. Punch Block Series (Stage 5)
30. Haymaker Punch Defense -- again

Class 19
28. Hook Sweep
32. Guillotine Defense -- again

Class 20
31. Take the Back (Guard)
26. Standing Headlock Defense -- again

Class 21
33. Elbow Escape (Side Mount)
21. Pull Guard -- again

Class 22
35. Twisting Arm Control
29. Rear Takedown -- again

Class 23
36. Double Underhook Pass
17. Double Leg Takedown -- again

Finally Finished Proccessing Photographs from 2013

I finally finished going through 2013 photos to give the best ones from the end of December captions and put them online.

I have finished January photos for 2014 and started a new album for the new Gregorian year.

I have a new profile photo, too!

The somewhat sad attempt for me to rock the bow tie and Hawaiian shirt together is replaced.

A Bard of Three Archetypes

Andrew West, whose Pathfinder stories I mentioned last month, has started a forum challenge. What can each class best contribute to a tenth-level party?.

The challenge includes five enounters through which to showcase a sample character's contributions.

Here is my silly and fun entry, designed to be a companion to a tenth-level sorcerer similar to a lower-level version of Andrew's own Camulus.

This Fun Bard

Foxisyu is a tenth level Kitsune bard that blends three archetypes: Dirge Bard, Sound Striker, and Geisha.

(His ability scores without item bonuses are STR 9, DEX 14, CON 14, INT 10, WIS 12, and CHA 20. Only the last really matters. His headband increases his Charisma to 22.)

(All of the important standard bardic abilities are replaced by the archetypes, except for the bardic performances Inspire Courage, Inspire Greatness, and Dirge of Doom.)

His traits are Ghost Sight and Omen.

His feats are Toughness, Allied Spellcaster, Fox Shape, Fleet, and Swift Kitsune Shapechanger.

(Toughness brings him to 79 hit points, due to 39 Bard + 20 CON Mod + 10 Favored Class + 10 Toughness.)

As he gained experience he kept five skills maximized: Perform (percussion), Perform (dance), Diplomacy, Perception, and Stealth. His other ten skill points are spread around less important skills, including Craft (calligraphy), Knowledge (Religion), Perform (strings), and Perform (sing).

His equipment is a Doomharp, Headband of Alluring Charisma +2, Ring of Feather Falling, Staff of the Master, and Lesser Extend Metamagic Rod. He also has 12,800 gold pieces worth of other less significant equipment.

His spells are:

• First: saving finale, anticipate peril, charm person, expeditious retreat, liberating command, and restore corpse.
• Second: acute senses, commune with birds, distressing tone, silence, and command undead.
• Third: arcane concordance, charm monster, coordinated effort, good hope, and marionette possession.
• Fourth: heroic finale and apparent master.

His sorcerer partner also knows the four big "control you" spells: charm person, command undead, charm monster, and apparent master.

Before a Big Encounter

He prepares himself and his sorcerer partner in many ways. He gathers information using commune with birds. He performs a geisha's tea ceremony to grant them Inspire Greatness. Using his rod he casts arcane concordance, coordinated effort, and good hope. Then he casts acute senses on both of them, anticipate peril on his ally, and expeditious retreat on himself.

(For the rest of that day he still has 22 rounds of bardic performance and can do four first-level castings, two second-level castings, one third-level, and two fourth-level.)

Now he and his ally both have two extra hit dice, a bunch of temporary hit points, +20 to perception checks, +3 to Fortitude saving throws, +2 to Reflex and Will saving throws, +4 to hit, and +2 to ability checks, skill checks, and weapon damage. His ally has +5 to the next Initiative check.  Moreover, while they are within 10 feet of each other the ally gains +1 to spell DCs and free silent metamagic. Finally, when they are adjacent the ally gains +2 to overcome spell resistance—and those four big "control you" spells gain +4 instead, and an additional increase to caster level.

Then he hands his ally his staff (so the ally has three free uses of dazing metamagic), shapechanges into a fox, and has his ally use spider climb to make the fox sticky.  He rides in his ally's shoulder so they remain adjacent.

Having a fox's keen nose and the ability to see Undead very well also keep him useful, especially since he can survey the surroundings more calmly than his busy ally.

(His base movement rate with the Fleet feat and expeditious retreat spell is now 65' in his own form or 75' as a fox.  He is weak in combat, but flees really well!) 

(Before a really big fight they find a Druid ally. Preparing an additional person only requires four more rounds of bardic performance and one more casting of acute senses.)

During Combat

His ally fights as an invisible, flying sorcerer using dazing spells and those four "control you" spells

He rides his ally as a tiny fox, often barking a few high-pitched notes, ether using Wordstrike for a small amount of automatic damage at any range or Weird Words from up to 30 feet away to cause about 100 damage.

(The Weird Words are ten sonic missiles that probably each hit for 1d8+6 damage.  They are ranged touch attacks, and he not only has that +4 to hit from Inspire Greatness and good hope, but also a +2 to hit from his fox form's extra Dexterity and a +2 to hit from his shrunken size.  Some enemies will succeed on a DC 21 Fortitude saving throw to halve damage.)

More help is seldom needed.  Yet he has several useful tricks to use in his normal shape, from a place of safety, when appropriate. He can maintain a silent zone in which his ally can still cast spells.  Using Dirge of Doom while up to 60' away is a safe way to help his ally's spells work. Once a foe is slain, he can perform the Dance of the Dead to create distractions.  While performing, he can also stomp or beat on his harp so the percussion intimidates one foe each round.

(His skill bonus for Perform (percussion) is 31, from 10 ranks + 3 Class skill + 6 CHA mod + 10 Geisha Knowledge +2 Masterwork Item. When he uses it to demoralize foes it increases to 33, beacuse of + 5 Haunting Refrain + 1 trait − 4 smaller size. This is guaranteed to each round make a new enemy shaken for several rounds, as the DC is a lowly 10 + target hit dice + target WIS Mod.)

During emergencies he uses his daily swift action intimidation, the two finale spells (granting his ally a saving throw reroll or an extra standard action), or liberating command. Occasionally casting distressing tone might also help. He can also use the four "control you" spells, but not as well as his ally.

Finally, in some circumstances it is very helpful to diplomatically gain permission from a charmed enemy to target it with a spell, and surprise it by casting marionette possession.

An Update on my Projects

Yesterday I realized that I had not blogged about all my projects since my 2009 blog post A Personal State of the Union.  Time for an update!

Of course, in November 2009 nine Smiley was a year old and Gallant was not yet around.

 

Now Smiley is in kindergarten, and Gallant will start preschool a few days each week in a month or two, when his toilet-training success stabilizes.

(I am very much looking forward to finally having a few hours each week with no child in the house!  Then some of my projects can receive a lot more time.)

 

Scriptural Concept Studies

Not much change here.  The P'nei Adonai website is gone.  I have successfully moved the essays to my own website.  That required a bit of formatting effort, and a few of the essays now look nicer.

But the heart of the project has remained on standby.  I know that God wants me to write more about the scriptural understanding of some concepts.  This can start as simply as extracting the relevant parts from many of my old sermons from P'nei Adonai.

I also need to edit the existing essays to add scholarly footnotes and citations.

But God has not told me that this project is urgent, so I have been devoting my time to things that directly help my family.

Appropriate Masculinity Essays

I have spent a lot of time during the past 18 months studying what it means to be appropriately masculine.  I want advice about this topic to be part of what I give to my two boys.  It is important enough to me as a parent that I am writing essays about it.  Not only might the essays help other people, but if (Heaven forbid) something happens to me then this part of my legacy will somewhat endure.

The hobbies part of website now has four essays that discuss confidence, connecting, maturity, and flirting.  Another three essays are incomplete but should be ready before the year is done.

I also want to compile the blog posts about why I love my wife as one page.  That series is not yet done!

Investment Essays

I keep having conversations with people about how I do investing.  So I have put together five essays in the hobbies part of my website that explain my methods for investment picking, investment timing, dividend investing, sector investing, and charitable giving.

Elementary School Volunteering

Now that Smiley is in kindergarten, I have been spending about three hours each week volunteering at his school.  I help in his classroom doing various things, as well as with the fourth and fifth grade classrooms doing math.

My hobbies page now has a great list of math games, movement games, and tag variants as resources for anyone doing those in elementary schools.

Role-Playing Game

My role-playing game has grown and matured.  It is now named Nine Powers.

My current typing projects are converting the old Caves of Chaos adventure (from module B2 Keep on the Borderlands) for my wife to play during the evening.

Other Games

Not much progress here.  I still have a bunch of old board games that need to be put online, but it has not happened.

Math Teaching

My Math 20 notes have changed from PDF slideshows to web pages.  The math department overhauled the Math 25 class during the past few years.  I am waiting for that dust to settle before fixing up my old Math 25 workbook as web pages instead of a rich text format document.

Two Fantasy Novels

I still have not published my two fantasy novels, Windsong and The Sandy Isles.  But I did go through them carefully, fixing typos as I changed them to web pages.

Self-publishing as e-books can't be that hard.  But I have not yet prioritized it.

Other Writing

All of my worthy old poetry is now on my website.  None of the stories are yet.

Recipes

All of my recipes are now on my website.  Smiley and Gallant eat the tropical teff pancakes almost every morning.

Martial Arts

A project that does not involve my website!  I have shifted from Tai Chi to Gracie Ju-jitsu.  That was a lot of fun in 2013.  Unfortunately, my math teaching schedule prevents me from attending classes during this Winter term.

Swing Dancing

Another project that does not involve my website!  For the past few years my wife and I have done little swing dancing, despite that being her favorite kind of exercise.  First it was Gallant being so little.  Then the local swing dance group took a hiatus.  But now we are going to a monthy dance with TrackTown Swing and a weekly dance with UO Swing Night.

Stella's Stunners

My colleague Gayle Smith at LCC passed along a link to a nice collection of "non-routine mathematics problems" named Stella's Stunners, created by the Ohio Resource Center.

As an example, here is the first one.  Stella calls this an "introductory level" problem.

Scott the Painter
Scott the painter is going to paint the floors of 16 rooms. He is in room #1. He can go through any door (see diagram). He cannot return to any room once he has painted it--slow-drying paint! In what order should he paint the rooms? Obviously, #16 must be last.

Local Banjo Part 2 - a Sort-of Kickstarter

In December I mentioned my friend Jeffrey Weitzel's new banjo-making business, Weitzel Banjo.

He has been using a website similar to Kickstart named Indiegogo to raise money for a production run of six banjos.  The byline (and link) is Pickin Beyond Tradition.

With only six more days (UPDATE: the fundraising is extended until mid-March) he is near his goal, but not yet there.  You can contribute and get thanked with his personally designed banjo-themed playing cards or baseball caps.

Fun!

Government Support for the Elderly Versus Children

The other day I wondered how much the government (Federal, State, and local) spends on the elderly versus children.

I looked for an answer at the website USGovernmentSpending.

As a rough approximation, the overall U.S. government spends:

• 20% of its expenses on health care (70% of that on the elderly, 30% of that on children)
• 16% of its expenses on education (50% of that on children)
• 8% of its expenses on welfare (13% of that on the elderly, 87% of that on children)
• 19% of its expenses on pensions (100% of that on the elderly)

So the elderly get roughly 34% of the government expenses overall, and children get 21%.

Wanting more reliable answers, I started doing some searching and found an urban myth popular last year  People who refuted that myth found that the best answer is "the elderly receive about twice as much" but there are details of timing and categorization.

Another essay claims the real issue is the middle class.  Families must care for both their children and their elderly parents.  Perhaps the real issue is how the government promotes this happening.

The Most Fun Fraction Games Ever

A month ago I mentioned inventing a better version of the Battleship game to help the elementary school students I work with learn about equivalent fractions.

I recently invented two more fraction games that are even more fun!

(I did a fairly exhausting search online for fraction games.  The bar is not set very high.  These might really be the most fun faction games ever!)

The first is Fraction Bingo Twenty.

The second is Customized Deck Fraction War.  It does not have a nice picture.

The rues to both are with my math games page.  Jump to Fraction Games and enjoy!

The Arcane Adventures of Andrew Watson

I have not played Pathfinder in many months.  I still read some forum posts, to gather topics to talk about with my brother-in-law.

A few days ago I found some very entertaining stories written by Andrew Watson.  All feature a solo spellcaster who goes through a published Pathfinder module.

• Camulus the Sorcerer (level 18) and the Witchwar Legacy
• Horden Hammerhand the Arcanist (level 12) and the Eyes of the Ten
• Marcus D'Avore the Arcanist (level 11) Versus the King of the Storval Stairs
• Marcus D'Avore the Arcanist (level 11) and the Elven Entanglement
• Marcus D'Avore the Arcanist (level 16) Invades the Moonscar
• Casmir the Sorcerer (level 10) and the Fury/Fate of the Fiend
• Casmir the Sorcerer (level 10) and the Five Challenges

Totally unrelated to these stories, here is M. S. Corley's picture of what an Arcanist might look like.  Seem to you like a more flexible, mobile, and upbeat wizard?

---

I have written about the Eidos Thief computer games, and noticed similarities that undoubtedly help explain why I enjoyed his tales so much.

In Andrew's stories a lone protagonist is more maneuverable and stealthy than his opponents.  Exploration can happen quickly and is not bogged down by combats.  The hero can complete the mission while avoiding many fights.  But avoiding a fight forfeits an opportunity to gain information and loot, and also allows a threat to remain between our hero and the exit, which might be problematic if a hasty retreat is needed.

The protagonist does not defeat his enemies by being better than them at their kind of fighting--instead he has a small but robust set of tricks he uses to take them out.  Many of these tricks defeat the foe without killing it.

The hero has limited and valuable resources, and the better tricks use up more important resources.  Thus the hero must continually look for the least costly solution for each problem.  Studying his enemies helps him know which tricks to use in each circumstance.

Am I forcing the similarities, or do you see them too?

UPDATE: Andrew has created five challenges for others to solve with similar stories.

The Essence of Mathematics -- Contrasts

Three quotations found at MathNexus...

The essence of mathematics is exact truthfulness.
 - Ellery W. Davis, Mathematical Supplement of School Science, 1903

The essence of mathematics is accuracy.
 -Walter Bagehot, The Works of Walter Baghot, Travelers Insurance Company, 1891

The esssence of mathematics lies precisely in its freedom.
 - Georg Cantor, Mathematische Annalen, 1883

Any surprise that only Cantor is famous?

I have twice mentioned Paul Lockhart and his essay A Mathematician's Lament.

One of my December holiday presents was his new "math textbook" named Measurement.

It is truly a delightful book, everything that I hoped that Lockhart would some day write.  It is unlike any math textbook, but I know of no way to describe better other than to say it is what his Lament yearns for and would have made Cantor happy while being heretical to Davis and Bagehot.

(Not that Lockhart's ways to play with measurement are inexact or inaccurate, but that is not the essence of why or how he or Cantor do math.)

The Seventh Voyage of Sinbad

Health and projects have kept me from blogging, but tonight I will make time to fix that.  How about a movie review?

Smiley has been interested in learning about kinds of monsters.  He is pretty good about inventing new ones for the stories he tells me.  But he still wants to know what ideas other people have already established.

I finally found a great book to help satisfy his need: Dragons, Dragons by Eric Carle.  (It was reviewed by my wife's friend Sarah.)  Not as exhaustive as the old Barlowe's Guide to Extraterrestrials I enjoyed as a kid, but much more appropriate to Smiley's kindergarten age.

Then I serendipitously saw this DVD at the library.

What great monsters!  Both boys are loving this movie.

The film is a classic of Harryhausen's animation that I had never heard of.  It is one of the few films to score 100% at Rotten Tomatoes.  It is indeed a fun romp guaranteed to cause smiles.

I think they cyclopses are the true stars of the film.

But the best actress is clearly Kathryn Grant, who plays the princess. I had never heard of her, despite her other identity as Bing Crosby's wife.

Her lines are just as hokey as anyone else's.  But she also has the responsibility of acting old-fashioned feminine.  She remains genuinely cheerful and supportive, whether cursed by a shrinking spell, rescuing Sinbad or being rescued by him, or climbing into a magic lamp hoping to meet a young genie.

Brave Sinbad and wicked Sokurah are both wooden in comparison.  The men in the movie treasure the princess but never objectify her, and she runs with that dynamic to let the cheesy Hollywood love she shares with Sinbad highlight how daring and sweet can be very complimentary.

Shopping for Magic Stuff

When I started playing Pathfinder, the only rulebooks were the Core Rulebook and a bestiary.

The game provided a simplified and sane collection of "best of the game" D&D 3.5E rules for folks who wanted to keep playing that.

Players did not have as many options, but they were more-or-less balanced and sensible options all collected in one place for easy reference.

Since then, Pathfinder has jumped the shark.  It now has so many rulebooks that there is no point to owning them.  A player or GM needs to search through all the books to see all of the options for a situation.  This is best done online.

The same "too many books, too many broken combinations of options" problem that Pathfinder was created to fix has returned.

(The latest example is an eleventh level Half-Elven Oracle with Eldritch Heritage in the Arcane Bloodline who uses Paragon Surge to temporarily get Improved Eldritch Heritage or Expanded Arcana.  This character has nearly instant access to every Wizard and Cleric spell up to fifth spell level.)

The setting of Golarion also moves farther and farther from my kind of fantasy setting.  The world has increasingly dysfunctional economics because of how much wealth PCs are expected to gain.

As someone who grew up playing AD&D, even the idea of a "magic item shop" seems silly.  A lot of the fun of AD&D was finding creative ways to use the wacky assortment of strange items you found in dungeons.

In Pathfinder, adventurers instead sell (for half price) the items they will not be using daily and with that money the party Wizard crafts (for half price) more practical but boring magical equipment.

Now Pathfinder has an entire book devoted to magic item shops!

Perhaps I am too critical.  Maybe the book actually makes magic item shops someplace where Golarion's adventurers buy stuff, instead of only selling items there to get the gold the party Wizard needs for his crafting.

Quail Run

Near my grandmother's home is a neighborhood named Quail Run.

When we were visiting her in December, and drove by this intersection for the first time, Smiley was astounded.

"This must be where the fanciest houses are!" he proclaimed.  "They have bushes made of letters, just like in World World!"

Build a Better Battleship

Each week I volunteer in Smiley's kindergarten classroom.  I also help with math in some of the school's fourth and fifth grade classrooms.

Last week I invented a nice version of the game Battleship to help teach about equivalent fractions.

The kids loved it.  Yay!

Wait for the Recession, Then Buy Small-cap ETFs

Victor Liang has noticed that Small-cap ETF funds eventually outperform the overall market, especially if purchased during a recession.

It is an interesting article.  But it has four problems as an investment strategy.

First, the required time-frame of 10+ years makes this strategy viable primarily for how to invest for your kids.  Most investors do not have so many years to wait.

Second, the strategy does not understand or describe its risks.  Investors that want to use this strategy do not know what to do with their other investments to balance its weaknesses and manage overall risk.

Third, it is risky.  The three Small-cap ETF funds are not very old.

• IJR was established in 2000
• VBR was established in 2004
• SLY was established in 2010

Thus the "pattern" of outperforming over a ten-year period has only had time to happen once.  It is a risky bet that the pattern will repeat regularly.

Fourth, it is chasing gains.  Small-cap stocks surged last year.  Because the proposed strategy has such a long-term focus this would not be such a harsh criticism, except for the previous point that the "pattern" is not well-founded.

An Introduction to Investing

At the end of last month I finished back-burner project.  I wrote a series of four essays to introduce people to the stock market.

• How do I know which stocks or ETFs to buy? You can read my strategy for investment picking.
• Once I know which stock or ETF to buy, how do I know when to buy it? You can read my strategy for investment timing.
• For most of my family's savings we use dividend investing.
• I manage my IRA with a certain style of sector investing.

May these be helpful to you or someone you know!

Last year was an easy year to do well in the stock market, because the overall market grew so much.

 

Yet there is still satisfaction from beating the market by 7.5% with my Roth IRA.

(I do not expect the first three accounts to outperform the market, since they contain the commonly recommended mix of stocks and bonds to reduce risk.)

UPDATE: Blerg.  The day I decide to blog this, Google changes the code for their stock graph widgets. The last two essays were much nicer with those working.  Now the graph's images are broken, and the entire widget is a link to Yahoo! Finance.  Perhaps some hacker had fun.

Smiley and Percentages

My father-in-law recently introduced Smiley to the game The Battle for Wesnoth.

One of the game's features is a button that shows the player a battle's possible battle outcomes and their probabilities.  This was the first time Smiley had paid any attention to percentages.

Yesterday, at the San Diego Zoo, he saw a toy that he wanted at a gift shop.  It was a stick that made a whooshing noise when turned upside down, decorated like a giraffe's neck and head.

He had never seen such a toy before.  Nevertheless, he told me, "But Daddy, I have been wanting that toy 70% for 8 days!"

I am not sure what 70% means to Smiley, but it is apparently synonymous with "a whole lot".

2014 New Year's Resolution

"Here is a lesson in creative writing. First rule: Do not use semicolons. They are transvestite hermaphrodites representing absolutely nothing. All they do is show you've been to college."
― Kurt Vonnegut, A Man Without a Country

I do not agree completely with the above quotation.  But I have paid attention since reading it a few months ago.  Usually my writing improves when I break up sentences that contain joined independent clauses.

Cutting those clauses forces me to choose my words with more care.  Surprisingly often, gluing independent clauses with a semicolon or em-dash or a "comma plus conjunction" phrase is legitimate but hinders my clarity.

So my new year's resolution is to join independent clauses as little as possible.

---

 As a case in point, here is my stream-of-consciousness draft of the above:

I do not agree completely with the above quotation, but since reading it a few months ago I have noticed how much my writing improved by breaking up sentences.  I must choose my words with more care when I minimize joining independent clauses―surprisingly often, gluing independent clauses with a semicolon or em-dash or a "comma plus conjunction" phrase is legitimate but hinders clarity.  So my new year's resolution is to join independent clauses as little as possible.